Thursday, October 2, 2008

Stock Market 'Surprises'

Wow! The DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) dropped 777+ points on Monday the 29th. Experts say that meant 1.2 trillion dollars in losses. Doing the math, that comes to just over 1.5 billion dollars per point! I thought that was interesting. However, what I found out after doing a little research, is that Tuesday's 486 point jump was the third largest single day point INCREASE in the history of the stock market and was only 13 points away from the all time record of just under 500. Tuesday's increase calculates to an increase in value of $750 Billion in one day. One day.

I also learned that 5 out of the top 11 all-time single day increases occurred in 2008 and the all-time record closing bell occurred less than a year ago in October of 2007. If the DJIA is an indicator of a good or bad economy, then the economy must have been doing better than ever last September when the stock market closed at all-time highs of over 14,000! Right? Wrong. Don't let the news about the stock market pursuade you to panic. The Stock Market != The Economy. (does not equal) It's certainly an important element in the overall assessment of the economical picture, but it is based too much on emotion and speculation.

The stock market was due for another adjustment. All one has to do is look at history and you will find that the frequency of the 'crashes' is increasing to every several years now. However, history also proves that the market ALWAYS bounces back over time.

I've got a question. If the DJIA gets back to pre-Monday levels, would that be like it never happened? What does it mean to lose billions of dollars one day, only to 'win' it back?

The stock market reminds me of computerized card games I used to play as kid. You start with some pretend money and play until you're broke... then you ask for more credit and play long enough to win again. As long as you can keep playing long enough, then you will eventually win (break even). Compare that to stocks. If you can afford to keep playing long enough, you will 'win'. If you panic and for some reason sell when prices are sinking, you will inevitably lose. Ride the tide, don't rely on emotion and the market will eventually rebound. Look at history, it shocked me and I would like my message to be to encourage everyone about being more optimistic about the future of the United States. God has a plan for America. Let's do what we can to seek His will and live it out. 'Be careful to do what the Lord your God commands you'. ~ Dueteromony 5:32

No comments: